Trump's populist message gave him an early lock on Alabama
WASHINGTON – Even when the Republican nominee for president is the most disliked White House candidate in modern history, Alabama’s 40-year streak of favoring the GOP isn't in jeopardy.
Voter registration in Alabama is at an all-time high and primary turnout this year set records. On election day, the biggest beneficiary of that newfound enthusiasm will almost certainly be Donald Trump.
But whether Alabama’s nine electoral votes help propel Trump to the White House or wind up in the dustbin of political history – along with the state's support for the losing candidates in 2008 and 2012 – remains to be seen.
The race between Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is close in places like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and other battleground states that will ultimately decide the election. Alabama, however, remains the reddest of red states and a sure thing for the brash New York billionaire, according to every independent, non-partisan political prognosticator out there.
Alabama may have started out merely infatuated with Trump's celebrity, but his mantra that government no longer looks out for the little guy resonates in the state, said former Alabama Democratic Rep. Glen Browder, professor emeritus at Jacksonville State University.
“He was the only one criticizing the elites, even within his own party,” Browder said. “His rise was founded on this anti-elitism, which is very strong among the American people, but particularly in Alabama.”
Alabama, which historically has had an affinity for Republicans, is fertile ground for Trump. Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, aren't remembered fondly in the state (except by partisan Democrats), and Trump's warnings about the dangers of immigration and free trade mirror those made for years by Alabama’s junior senator, Republican Jeff Sessions.
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Alabama is one of 13 states to vote Republican in the last six presidential elections. The state has remained loyal to the GOP, even when the nominee was widely unpopular, as was Barry Goldwater in 1964. Goldwater won only six states in what was an historic landslide that year for Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson.
There are other examples of Alabama preferring the outcasts. In 1948, Alabama was one of only four states, all in the Deep South, to go for Strom Thurmond, the Dixiecrat candidate who broke away from the Democratic Party. In 1968, only five states went for independent Gov. George Wallace, including Alabama.
In 2015, when the GOP presidential field surged to 17 candidates, Alabama Republicans could have splintered. It was thought that pro-business establishment types would tilt toward former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, those eager to expand the Republican tent to younger voters and Hispanics would gravitate toward Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and social conservatives would flock to retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
Trump outflanked them all, consolidating enough Republican voters from every age, income bracket and education level to win the state's March 1 primary in a landslide. More than 860,000 Republicans voted in the primary and Trump won with more than 43 percent.
By comparison, 400,000 people cast Democratic ballots, 78 percent of them for Clinton.
Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump sweep Alabama
Huge Republican turnout pushed Trump to victory
The combined 1.2 million votes cast was a record for a presidential primary in Alabama, said Secretary of State John Merrill.
The Trump phenomenon and a competitive Republican primary drove turnout, but so did the earlier-than-usual primary date and frequent visits by candidates hoping to boost their standing among Southern conservatives.
“I attribute it to them doing what they did, but also us doing what we did, which was raise general awareness,” Merrill said. “We invited them to come. And we had a record number of presidential visits to the state.”
Indeed, the first tangible sign of Trump’s dominance was August 2015, when he packed a municipal stadium in Mobile and spoke for an hour about how government was failing its citizens.
“What's happening to this country is disgraceful,” he said to wild cheers.
When he arrived in Madison for another rally six months later, on the day before Alabama’s primary, he was even stronger. Sessions formally endorsed Trump at that rally and has been part of his circle of advisers ever since.
For more than a year, Sessions has credited Trump with speaking for Americans concerned about how immigration and trade policies are affecting their jobs and wages. Sessions, who once dismissed concerns about Trump’s crude language and reality-television persona by saying, “Nobody’s perfect,” has stayed by his side, traveling the country as a top Trump surrogate.
“Donald Trump has the strength, the will, the courage and the understanding of the difficulties facing this America,” Sessions said at a recent Trump rally. “He has the ability to get us back on the right track.”
Sessions also is backing Trump’s allegation that this year's election results may be fraudulent. With no evidence, he's warned ominously of a global conspiracy – including voter fraud – aimed at helping Clinton win.
“And this election, they are attempting to rig this election. They will not succeed,” Sessions said.
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Merrill, the Republican secretary of state in Montgomery, said Trump’s concerns about fraud are misguided.
“He doesn’t have a legitimate concern in Alabama," he said.
No independent polling has been done to indicate whether Trump's support among Alabama residents has slipped since the recent release of a 2005 video in which Trump brags about forcing himself sexually on women, and since multiple women have come forward saying Trump made unwanted sexual advances toward them.
Rep. Martha Roby, R-Montgomery, is the only Republican member of the state’s congressional delegation to withdraw her support for Trump. Supporters of the GOP presidential nominee responded by excoriating her on social media and in irate phone calls, promising to vote her out of office.
Montgomery County Probate Judge Steven Reed, a Clinton supporter, acknowledged Democrats are the underdog in Alabama on Nov. 8.
“I know some people think the national Democratic Party is too progressive on social and cultural issues and don’t think the party is strong on issues of everyday concerns,” Reed said. “We have work to do to get them to understand our message and our priorities, regardless of what they hear or what they may believe based on what talk show they are listening to.”
The presidential election also has done nothing to narrow the historical gap between black and white voters in Alabama on the issue of presidential preference. Barack Obama won more than 95 percent of the state's black vote in his two elections. Some national polls indicate Trump’s support among those voters might be even lower than it was for Obama's GOP opponents in 2008 and 2012.
“My sense is that the electorate is very polarized,” said Jim McLaughlin, a Republican pollster who has worked for several politicians in Alabama. “The vast majority of white voters are for Trump, and with the vast majority of African-Americans, Clinton is doing overwhelmingly well with them.”
Alabama has 3.2 million registered voters, and one-quarter of them are African-American, reflecting the makeup of the state’s population.
Browder said Trump’s support in the state isn't a surprise.
“Alabamians have always been mistrustful of elites, big mules, the bosses or the big shots because they never really felt the people on top were looking out for them,” Browder said. “Trump’s rise was founded in that and now since the nomination, he’s become more virulent anti-Hillary, and that has continued to fuel it. He was the only one speaking a populist language, which always sold well in Alabama.”
Contact Mary Troyan at mtroyan@usatoday.com.