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Why Uncertainty Is More Stressful Than Certainty Of Bad Things To Come

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One of the hardest things in life is not to know what’s coming down the pike. Unpredictability can be enjoyable at times, of course, and it’s sort of a given in life, but it’s different when you don't know if something bad out there will befall you. That situation usually just leads to stress. A new study out in Nature Communications today finds that indeed most people would rather know for certain that they’re going to get an electric shock than to not be able to predict it. These results may not come as too much of a shock to those of us who have dealt with psychological stressors, but it does suggest that strategies and gadgets that give us more predictive power may be quite soothing–like notification about how far off the next subway is. And when that kind of prediction is not possible, strategies to get us through uncertain times in one piece–like practicing mindfulness–may be very valuable.

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The team from University College London had participants come into the lab and play a computer game, in which snakes were hiding under certain rocks. The participants could learn over time which rocks were more likely to hide a snake–the catch was that they got a slightly painful shock to their hands for each snake they found. A computer model estimated each participant’s level of uncertainty for each choice they made, using the guesses they made over time. The participants’ stress levels were also measured physiologically, by the size of their pupils and how much they perspired.

What the study found was that participants were the most stressed when they were more uncertain about the situation than when they were certain about either thing happening. In other words, it seems that people feel better about knowing what’s coming–even if it’s painful–than not knowing.

"Using our model we could predict how stressed our subjects would be not just from whether they got shocks but how much uncertainty they had about those shocks," explains lead author Archy de Berker. "Our experiment allows us to draw conclusions about the effect of uncertainty on stress. It turns out that it's much worse not knowing you are going to get a shock than knowing you definitely will or won't. We saw exactly the same effects in our physiological measures–people sweat more and their pupils get bigger when they are more uncertain."

And this makes sense if you think about the real world applications. Being told layoffs may be coming months down the line may actually feel a lot worse than just being fired one day. The same applies to the positive things we anticipate. "When applying for a job,” says study author Robb Rutledge, “you'll probably feel more relaxed if you think it's a long shot or if you're confident that it's in the bag. The most stressful scenario is when you really don't know. It's the uncertainty that makes us anxious. The same is likely to apply in many familiar situations, whether it's waiting for medical results or information on train delays."

This is because it’s easier to plan for the future when you know what the deal is, even if it’s bad. Not knowing where things stand may have served a purpose for our ancestors, but it’s not so much of a help now. “Modern life comes with many potential sources of uncertainty and stress, but it has also introduced ways of addressing them," says author Sven Bestmann. "For example, taxi apps that show where a car is can offer peace of mind by reducing the uncertainty about when it will arrive. Real-time information boards at bus stops and train platforms perform a similar role, although this can be undermined by unspecified delays which cause stress for passengers and staff alike."

Shock studies in humans are interesting because they tell us a lot about the kinds of decisions we make, and preferences we have. A couple of years ago, researchers from the University of Virginia looked at whether people would rather sit alone in a room with distractions like music, sit with no distractions, or sit and give themselves a mild electric shocks. And lo and behold, people (especially men) would rather shock themselves than be by themselves alone with their thoughts. This new study is not too far off–suggesting that we’d rather know what’s coming, even if it’s bad, than not be able to predict it. Because not knowing can lead to all sorts of terrible outcomes in your headmore terrible that what actually ends up happening.

As Bestmann mentions, there are little things we can invent to help with some of the uncertainty in daily life, like apps and Googling for real-time info. Otherwise, since uncertainty is sort of a given in many other areas, learning how to sit with that feeling (as in mindfulness and meditation) and to navigate through it without coming apart, is probably about the best thing we can do.

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